India postpones completion of tiger
census to July 2007
India's Ministry of Environment and Forests
has just announced the postponement of the completion of the first
scientific count of tigers in India, which was due to be completed
by July 2006. The revised date for completion is now July 2007.
The Ministry claims that the census, started
in January 2005, has run into controversy after an international
team of experts questioned the adopted process of counting. Therefore
there is still no answer to the question of how many tigers remain
in the wild but some wildlife experts fear that the number may
be below 1500.
Conclusions reached by the team of
experts led by John Seidensticker, one of the world's most revered
tiger experts, claim that there are gaping holes in the method
of counting and an unhealthy dependence on surveyors who may have
questionable "integrity". The census has been completed
in seven reserves and Mr Seidensticker has filed his report with
both with the Indian Government and the World Conservation Union,
highlighting the problems encountered in providing an accurate
account. For details of his report, as reported by the Indian
Express newspaper, please click
here.
Report on the methodology of carrying
out an accurate tiger census and the current shortcomings: (As
reported in the Indian Express newspaper)
The Ministry dispensed with the
"pugmark" counting method claiming it was prone to
human error. And introduced what it called a "peer-reviewed,
scientific" method under which counting involves several
stages, use of cameras, testing of DNA samples and mapping tiger
density using GIS (geographic information systems). Seidensticker's
report says that this method, too, relies on the "integrity
of the primary data collectors, data compilers and their supervisors."
The genetic methods proposed in the
census, the report says, "have not been fully developed
for this application".
There are not enough GPS (global positioning
system) sets to map out the terrain as per the methodology.
The census's feasibility is in doubt
given that more than 40,000 forest units will have to be sampled,
20% of this area in the North-East. "Implementation is
an enormous undertaking...there is also no detailed write-up
of the technical analysis, explicitly identifying the analytical
techniques to be used in each phase of the framework.''
The census has no provision for tracking
the number of poaching incidents and other "human-caused"
mortality.
Evidence of how unwieldy the new process
has become comes from Project Tiger director Rajesh Gopal's
communication to Seidensticker, quoted in his report. Gopal
assured the team that the final "population estimation
of tigers (would be ready by) July 2006." This is contradicted
by today's announcement.
One key reason is death by poaching.
This is echoed by Seidensticker in his report: "A substantive
deficiency noted in the (counting) framework...is the absence
of tiger mortality monitoring."
The Ministry claims that data from states
is being processed at the Wildlife Institute of India. Says
institute director P R Sinha: "Most of the states are sitting
on (the data). The DG (forest) is pushing them hard to comply
over the next two weeks."
There is a bizarre official explanation
for why the data collected in January-February hasn't been computed
yet. "State officials have technical problems with the
software (read modified excel sheets) we sent," says Gopal.
This after there was elaborate training before the census began.
